On November 6, 2024, Donald Trump won the presidential election against Kamala Harris. Voting Republican or Liberal in the United States has been almost 50/50 since the 80’s. The 2024 election caught many by surprise because “Trump took the win by a bigger landslide than we have seen in awhile”, says Shannon Bow O’Brien in her article “2024’s Quick Win For Trump Will Go Down In The History Books Alongside 1964 and 1980 Election Day Landslides”
One thing that all American citizens must know about the election polls is that people who lean towards the democratic side of politics are more likely to take the polls. Whoever takes the polls allows the polling organizations to try and predict who may win the election.
These errors bare very real limitations on polling because Republican voters are not taking the polls. So citizens of the U.S. will not know if the polls are truly accurate since polling organizations are not getting the same amount of poll takers from each party.
Scott Keeter and Courtney Kennedy say in their article “Key Things To Know About U.S. Election Polling In 2024, “that many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.”
Another important thing to consider when looking at election predictions is what news sources citizens are looking at. It is widely known that different news sources have their own biases. On one hand sources like The New Yorker lean very far to the left, and sources like The Daily Mail lean very far to the right according to the AllSides Bias Chart.
Sources that lean far to the Democratic side all predicted that Harris was going to win. Whereas, sources that lean far to the right all predicted that Trump was going to win. This could also be the reason that so many people were either shocked or not shocked that Trump won.
No matter what, Donald J. Trump did win the presidential election, and now we can only look to the future.
Lily Wroblewski
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- What made Trump Win? - December 2, 2024